Confidence Without Competence: A Modern Leadership Crisis

From a young age, we’ve been taught to fear the dark, imagining dangers lurking under the bed. As adults, those fears evolve, yet we often overlook real threats in places that matter most—like boardrooms and parliaments. Today, some of the most harmful figures don’t hide; they speak confidently, wear suits, and hold positions of power.
This phenomenon, where seemingly incompetent or amoral individuals ascend to leadership roles, is not merely anecdotal. Recent studies have explored the psychological and systemic factors contributing to this trend.
At the heart of this issue lies the Dunning-Kruger effect, a cognitive bias where individuals with low ability overestimate their competence. A 2024 study by Biçer highlights how this effect can lead to leadership failures, as unskilled individuals remain unaware of their deficiencies, yet confidently pursue leadership roles1.
Beyond individual psychology, systemic issues within organizations often reward visibility over substance. Leaders who simplify complex problems into slogans, suppress dissent, and project unwarranted certainty tend to rise faster than those who deliberate, collaborate, or self-reflect.
Meanwhile, competent and ethical individuals may find themselves marginalized. Their thoughtful approaches can be perceived as indecisiveness, and their reluctance to engage in self-promotion may hinder their advancement. Over time, many withdraw, leaving a vacuum filled by the audacious.
The consequences are profound. Toxic leadership has been linked to increased employee turnover intentions. A 2024 study by Hattab et al. found a significant association between toxic leadership behaviors and employees’ intentions to leave, emphasizing the detrimental impact on organisational stability2.
To counteract these trends, leadership models emphasizing ethical considerations have gained attention. Synercube Leadership Theory3, for instance, integrates morality alongside concern for people and results, advocating for a more holistic approach to leadership.
Recognizing toxic leadership is the first step. Below is a checklist to help identify leaders whose ascent to power may be driven more by manipulation than merit.
Checklist: How to Spot Toxic Leadership
Answer “Yes” or “No” to each. The more “Yes” answers, the more caution is warranted.
- Does the leader overestimate their competence despite poor results?
- Do they ignore or undermine experts and critics?
- Do they prioritise personal image over meaningful outcomes?
- Do they blame others for failures but claim all credit for success?
- Do they show a lack of empathy or emotional awareness?
- Do they exploit rules for personal or political gain?
- Do they punish dissent or demand loyalty over honesty?
- Do they lie or distort facts regularly to protect themselves?
- Have capable, ethical individuals been pushed aside under their leadership?
- Do they disregard long-term consequences in favor of short-term wins?
Recognizing toxic leadership is the first step. Following it is a choice. The loudest voice is not always the wisest—and the brightest star doesn’t always lead you home. Sometimes, it simply shows you where the darkness begins.
- Bicer, Can. (2024). WHEN LEADERSHIP FAILS: THE DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT ON LEADERSHIP AND SOLUTIONS.[link] ↩︎
- Lopes, T., Soares, A., & Palma-Moreira, A. (2025). Toxic Leadership and Turnover Intentions: Emotional Intelligence as a Moderator of This Relationship. Administrative Sciences, 15(1), 26. [link] ↩︎
- Zankovsky, A., Christiane von der Heiden (2016). Leadership with Synercube: A dynamic leadership culture for excellence [link] ↩︎
Image: 愚木混株 cdd20